SHFE tin prices fluctuated at highs during the night session, with downstream enterprises generally maintaining rigid procurement due to cost pressure. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 29, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 273,200 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On September 26, Reuters cited three sources stating that the Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs based on the number of chips in each foreign electronic device, attempting to push enterprises to shift manufacturing to the US. Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute, said, "The US is currently facing inflation, with the rate significantly above the US Fed's target (2% inflation rate) and still rising, and this plan could push up consumer goods prices at this time." He added that even products manufactured domestically in the US might see price increases due to new tariffs on key inputs required for production. (2) According to Changan Auto's investor relations activity record, the company is fully investing in related R&D, with solid-state battery installation verification expected in 2026 and all-solid-state battery gradual mass production in 2027, achieving an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. The Shenlan L06 is the latest sedan model under the Shenlan brand, positioned as a "long-driving-range magnetorheological laser intelligent sports sedan" under Shenlan's global strategy. It is the first Chinese car model to mass-produce with magnetorheological technology, globally launched and uniquely equipped with a 3nm automotive-grade cockpit chip, and is expected to officially launch in Q4. The company remains committed to achieving its sales target of 1 million units this year. (3) To promote the healthy development of new energy vehicle trade, in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation have decided to implement export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles. The relevant matters are announced as follows: I. Export license management will be implemented for goods classified as other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons, equipped solely with an electric motor and having a vehicle identification number (VIN) (refer to customs commodity code 8703801090). II. The conditions for enterprises applying for export qualifications, management methods, application procedures, and the application and issuance of export licenses shall follow the relevant provisions of the "Notice on Further Regulating the Export Order of Automobile and Motorcycle Products" (Shang Chan Fa [2012] No. 318) issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Customs, the former General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, and the former Certification and Accreditation Administration. Customs inspections of exported pure electric passenger vehicles shall be based on the current and effective catalog of import and export commodities subject to mandatory inspection. III. This announcement will take effect officially on January 1, 2026.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters maintaining production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: The solder industry, the main consumer of tin, has seen a significant decrease in orders due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provide limited boost: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with low willingness for proactive stockpiling. However, considering the National Day holiday is expected to arrive, some enterprises have conducted minor pre-holiday stockpiling.

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